Yemen's Houthi rebels are looking to gain from continuing conflict in the Middle East
CAIRO (AP) — In the days since Israel intensified its campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, including the strike that killed the militant group's leader Hassan Nasrallah, Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels have been quick to show they are an important player in the complex conflicts convulsing the Middle East.
In a brazen attack on Saturday, the Houthis fired a ballistic missile at Israel's main airport as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was arriving back from New York, where he had addressed the United Nations. On Monday, they threatened “escalating military operations” to target Israel after apparently shooting down a U.S. military drone flying over Yemen.
And on Tuesday, an explosive-loaded drone crashed into one ship in the Red Sea as a missile exploded against another, the British military and private security officials said, the latest in the Houthis' assaults on commercial shipping in the key waterway.
The salvo of Houthi attacks has again drawn attention to the Yemeni rebels and raised questions about their goals and strategies.
The rebels, armed by Iran, seized most of Yemen’s north and its capital, Sanaa, a decade ago, pushing the country's internationally recognized government into exile.
A Saudi-led coalition backing Yemen's government entered the war in 2015 and the Houthis have since been fighting what has become a long-running but now largely stalemated civil war in Yemen.
However, when the Israel-Hamas war erupted in the Gaza Strip a year ago, the Houthis began targeting shipping throughout the Red Sea corridor — part of a campaign they say aims at pressuring Israel and the West over the war.
Analysts and observers say a widening conflict could boost the Houthis militarily and expand their already outsized role across the region — despite retaliatory strikes by Israel, the United States and the United Kingdom.
Ahmed Nagi, a senior Yemen analyst at the Crisis Group, says that before the war in Gaza, the Houthis were seen as an often-forgotten and less-prominent faction in an axis that includes Iran, Syria's government forces, Lebanon's Hezbollah, the Palestinian Hamas and other groups in the region.
That changed when the Houthis began hitting ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden making their way to the Suez Canal, suddenly posing a much wider threat.
“Over the past year, the Houthis have taken center stage,” Nagi said.
After Hamas attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people and taking some 250 hostages, Israel responded with a blistering offensive on the Gaza Strip, a coastal enclave run by the Palestinian militant group.
Israel’s retaliatory invasion of Gaza has killed more than 41,000 Palestinians and wounded more than 95,000, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians and militants in its count but says that over half of those killed are women and children.
The toll the war has taken and the extent of Gaza's destruction have shocked the world.
Meanwhile, the Houthis see the Yemenis’ prevailing solidarity with Palestinians as a useful tool for recruiting new fighters and swelling their ranks, Nagi said
In June, the Houthis unveiled a new, solid-fuel missile in their arsenal that resembles aspects of one earlier one displayed by Iran, which Tehran described as flying at hypersonic speed.
The rebels fired their new “Palestine” missile — complete with a warhead painted like a Palestinian keffiyeh checkered scarf — at the southern port of Eilat in Israel, setting off air raid sirens but causing no damage or injuries.
The extent of the Houthis' actions was a surprise to some, mainly because of their limited resources and Yemen's own costly civil war.
Nagi described their strategy as one of “gradual escalation” towards Israel. As their prominence grows, the Houthis — who have for years relied on portable missile launchers and hit-and-run tactics — will likely be eager to get their hands on more advanced weapons, he added.
The Houthis initially targeted vessels claimed to be linked to Israel and later expanded their campaign to include all commercial shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. They used small boats, short-range missiles and drones to carry out those attacks.
Their campaign prompted a response by an international coalition, led by the U.S. and U.K., which in February launched strikes on “sites associated with the Houthis’ deeply buried weapons storage facilities, missile systems and launchers, air defense systems and radars,” U.S. defense officials said.
In July, an Iranian-made drone launched by the Houthis struck Tel Aviv, killing one person and wounding 10. Israel responded with a wave of airstrikes on Houthi-held areas of Yemen, including the port city of Hodeida.
The Houthis have since warned they could expand their campaign beyond Mideast waters, to target ships using the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, or those in the Mediterranean Sea heading to Israel.
According to Faozi al-Goidi, a fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, the rebels are not likely to be deterred anytime soon and could also target vessels further out in the Indian Ocean.
They may also seek to "partner with other militias to build an alliance that would threaten security in the region,” al-Goidi said.
The New York-based Soufan Center, a think tank, said in a September report that the Houthis were increasing “operational autonomy” and diversifying their alliances away from Iran by cooperating with Russia, pointing to alleged plans for Russian weapons shipments to the Houthis that fell through.
The Houthis remain in control of most of Yemen's north where they enjoy popular support despite a dire economic situation and a brutal crackdown on dissent that has included humanitarian workers.
Their fight against Israel is likely to play into that. Thousands of Houthi supporters come out to Sanaa streets to rally every Friday, demanding justice for Palestinians and denouncing Israel and the U.S.
“Yemenis of all political backgrounds and ideologies support Palestinians and have a deep connection with them,” said Yemeni political analyst Abdel-Bari Taher. That will help grow support for the Houthis, despite the rebels' "oppressive policies against Yemenis.”
The Houthis may also seek to exploit their newfound stature following strikes against Israel in any potential negotiations with Saudi Arabia over a resolution to Yemen's civil war.
The have raised "their ceiling for negotiations,” said al-Goido. “No one will ignore them anymore.”
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