AP Decision Notes: What to expect in North Carolina on Election Day
WASHINGTON (AP) — North Carolina voters will cast ballots for president and governor in the Nov. 5 general election while many in the state are still dealing with the aftermath and massive destruction caused by Hurricane Helene.
The Tarheel State is one of a handful of competitive presidential battlegrounds that will likely determine the race for the White House. Polls there have tightened considerably since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in July, making the state a popular destination for both campaigns. Since the storm, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump and their running mates have all visited North Carolina.
Since 1968, Democratic presidential candidates have carried North Carolina only twice: in 1976 and 2008. Nonetheless, the state has been competitive in recent years. Trump carried North Carolina twice but with less than 50% of the vote each time. He edged Biden in 2020 by about one percentage point, his smallest winning margin in any state.
In the race for governor, Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson and Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein are the nominees to replace Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, who is term-limited. Robinson has denied a CNN report that he posted explicit messages on a pornography web site more than a decade ago. Since the allegations surfaced, many of his campaign staff members have resigned and he was excluded from a Trump campaign event in Wilmington.
Also on the ballot is a competitive race in the 1st Congressional District in northeastern North Carolina. Democratic U.S. Rep. Don Davis is seeking a second term against Republican Laurie Buckhout.
In the state Legislature, Republicans overwhelmingly outnumber Democrats in both chambers, but a net loss of a single seat in the Senate or the House could cost the GOP its supermajority, and its ability to override the governor’s veto along with it. All 50 state Senate and 120 state House seats are up for election.
Voters will also consider a proposed amendment to the state constitution that would specify that only U.S. citizens can vote in the state.
Here’s a look at what to expect in the 2024 election in North Carolina:
Nov. 5.
7:30 p.m. ET.
16 awarded to statewide winner.
President: Harris (D) v. Trump (R) v. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) v. Jill Stein (Green) v. Randall Terry (Constitution) v. Cornel West (Justice For All).
Governor: Robinson (R) v. Stein (D) and three others.
1st Congressional District: Davis (D) vs. Buckhout (R) and one other.
Ballot measure: N.C. 1 (Citizenship Requirement to Vote General).
U.S. House, Agriculture Commissioner, Attorney General, Auditor, Court of Appeals, Insurance Commissioner, Labor Commissioner, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, Supreme Court, Superintendent of Public Instruction, Treasurer, state Senate, state House.
North Carolina has a track record of counting votes relatively quickly, leaving only about 1% of the vote uncounted after election night. This year, the count could be slowed in some areas due to the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. State elections officials approved emergency measures in nearly 30 western counties and tribal areas giving voters additional options for turning in their absentee ballots.
State law allows county elections officials to begin tabulating mail ballots before the polls have closed on Election Day. As a result, the first votes reported on election night will include many of these mail ballots. Overall, these ballots have tended to favor Democrats, ever since the issue of early and mail voting became highly politicized during the 2020 election. This means that the Democratic candidate in a competitive contest could take an early lead in the vote count in the initial vote reports after polls close, even though the race may tighten considerably as more votes are tabulated.
In the 2022 U.S. Senate race, for example, Democrat Cheri Beasley took a 20 point lead over Ted Budd when the first batches of votes were released after polls closed. That lead disappeared after about 90 minutes, when Budd overtook Beasley in the vote count and went on to win the seat. Mail and early in-person votes accounted for about 59% of all ballots in that election.
In statewide elections, the Democratic strongholds are in the Raleigh, Charlotte, Greensboro and Fayetteville areas, while Republicans tend to perform best in the western, eastern and southeastern areas of the state. When Barack Obama carried North Carolina in 2008, he won beyond the safe Democratic areas and picked up an additional 11 counties in what were moderate Republican areas. More than half of those counties may have moved out of reach for Democrats today, as Trump outperformed Biden by double-digit margins in 2020. But that same year, Democratic Gov. Cooper picked up Granville, Pasquotank and Scotland counties in his successful reelection bid and reduced the margin in others.
Other counties to watch include Nash, northeast of Raleigh, and New Hanover on the Atlantic Coast. They are two of only 10 counties across the seven presidential battlegrounds that flipped from Trump to Biden. Nash is expected to complete its vote count by around 10 p.m. ET, followed by New Hanover about half an hour later.
The Associated Press doesn’t make projections and will declare a winner only when it has determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race hasn’t been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, like candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear it hasn’t declared a winner and explain why.
There are no automatic recounts in North Carolina, but candidates may request and pay for one if the margin is less than 0.5% of the total votes or 10,000 votes for statewide races or 1% for non-statewide races. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
2020: Trump (R) 50%, Biden (D) 49%, AP race call: Fri. Nov. 13, 2020, 3:49 p.m. ET.
Registered voters: 7,666,436 (as of Sept. 1, 2024). 31% Democrats, 30% Republicans.
Voter turnout in 2020 presidential election: 75% of registered voters.
Votes cast before Election Day 2020: about 84% of the total vote.
Votes cast before Election Day 2022: about 58% of the total vote.
Votes cast before Election Day 2024: See AP Advance Vote tracker.
First votes reported, Nov. 3, 2020: 7:42 p.m. ET.
By midnight ET: about 99% of total votes cast were reported.
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Associated Press writers Rebecca Reynolds, Paul Wiseman and Maya Sweedler contributed to this report.
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